Long-Term Future of Humanity

[Casey Cho]

How do you think humanity and civilization will develop over the next few centuries?

[thedude]

If you are any indication, Casey, then we are all fucked.

[innerstickler]

Well, that's not very nice.

I think it will continue to grow towards a more unified and socially progressive society. Also, we'll have laser guns and a moonbase. (Note: this will mean that we'll have to stop calling people loonies as that is offensive to our lunar brethren.)

[shodan]

Within thirty years, everyone will be plugged into the Internet 24/7. Within fifty years, computers which are smarter than people will be commonplace. This will NOT lead to a Golden Age, just bigger problems for which humans are largely irrelevant. In the interim, the gap between the Third World and the West will explode.

China will liberalize and become the second superpower.

Global warming is inevitable, but will not be disastrous. We will shift to alternative forms of energy after oil becomes too expensive, and eventually fusion will be tamed and our energy problems will be over.

No flying cars.

Regards,
shodan

[Ritser Brughel]

A deepness in the sky minus the aliens, OnOffStar or implied existences of the Zones.

Civilizations will rise and fall in massive collapses where reality becomes a nightmare and humanity will make it off of earth. The human realm will expand across the stars, but end up largely technologically static with the highest civilizations all rediscovering the same technological wonders but none managing to pull off a singularity.

The long-term future of this civilization of ours? The implosion of the west, the anglosphere and their colonies which has been ongoing since 1914 and picked up steam with the rise of cultural marxism, postmodernism, the 'new left' will continue and we'll enter into a full dark age as opposed to a collapse.

[dubyakayel]

Old problems are solved and new problems arise from the solutions. I won't pretend to know what these new problems are however. After all, history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme according to Mark Twain. A good example would be the scourge of horse shit preventing cities from actually growing that much and yet a dependence oil horse power and whaling for oil being solved by cars and drilling for oil which in turn cause new problems.

Buut living standards will undoubtedly rise.

Politically, same old same old.

[Ritser Brughel]

dubyakayel, our current civilization is institutionally locked into being dependent on fossil fuels the way the mayans were on their particular style of agriculture. The end result will be a series of catabolic collapse-style downward steps to a dark age. It's too late to avoid it -- we might have avoided it had we taken real steps in the 70s and 80s during the first wave of energy-caused collapse in 1973-74.

Whoever replaces the anglo-american world empire as the lead civilization or group of civilizations will lack these institutional blockages and be more free to use solar, nuclear, geothermal, OTEC power, orbital solar, etc than we ever were. Perhaps the Scandanavian countries or the vietnamese since both areas are good for hydro power among others.

[dubyakayel]

Mar 19, 2011 13:12:05 GMT -5 Ritser Brughel said:

dubyakayel, our current civilization is institutionally locked into being dependent on fossil fuels the way the mayans were on their particular style of agriculture. The end result will be a series of catabolic collapse-style downward steps to a dark age. It's too late to avoid it -- we might have avoided it had we taken real steps in the 70s and 80s during the first wave of energy-caused collapse in 1973-74.

Whoever replaces the anglo-american world empire as the lead civilization or group of civilizations will lack these institutional blockages and be more free to use solar, nuclear, geothermal, OTEC power, orbital solar, etc than we ever were. Perhaps the Scandanavian countries or the vietnamese since both areas are good for hydro power among others.

Why?

People have been predicting the doom of fossil fuels for decades and peak oil along with it. The Saudis still hold spare capacity and they won't let prices rise too high or else there's going to be a massive switch to energy alternatives. You see the activation and price-feasibility of Canadian Tar Sands and the Marcellus Shale beginning to be used. Capacity is set to increase as long as there isn't such huge price spikes.

This allows a transition into different energy alternatives.

www.product-reviews.net/2011/03/17/pepsi-launches-green-bottle-alternative-to-plastic-made-from-plant-material/

Note, petro products are just as important as gasoline for cars in fossil fuel usage.

Besides, notice that the oil shocks of 1973-4 did not actually collapse the economy. There was stagnation yes, but I would personally argue that was due to the monetary policy of the Federal reserve at the time with their mistaken belief in the inflation and unemployment trade-off which was remedied by Milton Friedman's work.


As for whoever replaces "Anglo" society, the world is far too interconnected. It'll be wrong to say one's society's collapse would not destroy another. Besides, if there was a collapse, I suspect the Portland/Vancouver area would lead the reclamation of civilization.

[thelyniezian]

Mar 19, 2011 13:41:59 GMT -5 dubyakayel said:

Why?

People have been predicting the doom of fossil fuels for decades and peak oil along with it. The Saudis still hold spare capacity and they won't let prices rise too high or else there's going to be a massive switch to energy alternatives. You see the activation and price-feasibility of Canadian Tar Sands and the Marcellus Shale beginning to be used. Capacity is set to increase as long as there isn't such huge price spikes.

Some are claiming the Saudi spare capacity has been deliberately overstated. As for tar sands and oil shale, the energy returned on energy invested is a lot lower than conventional oil, so is goign to become far less efficient and as I recall, some of the Canadian stuff is built on Indian/First Nations land (forgot the tribe).

Note, petro products are just as important as gasoline for cars in fossil fuel usage.

There are alternatives for many things- like for bottles, I'd sooner see returnable glass ones you leave a deposit for like back in the old days. Requres much less energy IIRC.

As for whoever replaces "Anglo" society, the world is far too interconnected. It'll be wrong to say one's society's collapse would not destroy another.

Hopefully if any transition is allowed to occur, it should be in trying to reduce the need for global dependency, though I expect it might be difficult especially for places which currently need a lot of aid. There are unconventional methods (permaculture, agro-ecology schools of thought) which might improve things though. And with less need for mechanisation.

[dubyakayel]

Some are claiming the Saudi spare capacity has been deliberately overstated. As for tar sands and oil shale, the energy returned on energy invested is a lot lower than conventional oil, so is goign to become far less efficient and as I recall, some of the Canadian stuff is built on Indian/First Nations land (forgot the tribe).

Yep, I've heard that before and I accept that argument, but the fact that they have spare capacity says something. And efficiency only matters up to the point where the prices override the costs, you see large-scale investment in tar sands and shale oil recently in the past few years.

There are alternatives for many things- like for bottles, I'd sooner see returnable glass ones you leave a deposit for like back in the old days. Requres much less energy IIRC.

Yep, the fact that there are alternatives for many things suggests that petrochemical industry, which takes a significant portion of the oil can be replaced.

Hopefully if any transition is allowed to occur, it should be in trying to reduce the need for global dependency, though I expect it might be difficult especially for places which currently need a lot of aid. There are unconventional methods (permaculture, agro-ecology schools of thought) which might improve things though. And with less need for mechanisation.

When we reach that topic, then I have to admit I don't know. I don't pretend to know what the solution is, but there are plenty of competing solutions out there. Reminds me of hydrogen power and the hydrogen economy, wonder whatever happened to that, pretty much dead these days for at least another few decades.

[thelyniezian]

Mar 20, 2011 18:56:17 GMT -5 dubyakayel said:

Some are claiming the Saudi spare capacity has been deliberately overstated. As for tar sands and oil shale, the energy returned on energy invested is a lot lower than conventional oil, so is goign to become far less efficient and as I recall, some of the Canadian stuff is built on Indian/First Nations land (forgot the tribe).

Yep, I've heard that before and I accept that argument, but the fact that they have spare capacity says something. And efficiency only matters up to the point where the prices override the costs, you see large-scale investment in tar sands and shale oil recently in the past few years.

You still get less usefulness out of it when you're not thinking in terms of money.

Yep, the fact that there are alternatives for many things suggests that petrochemical industry, which takes a significant portion of the oil can be replaced.

Hopefully if any transition is allowed to occur, it should be in trying to reduce the need for global dependency, though I expect it might be difficult especially for places which currently need a lot of aid. There are unconventional methods (permaculture, agro-ecology schools of thought) which might improve things though. And with less need for mechanisation.

When we reach that topic, then I have to admit I don't know. I don't pretend to know what the solution is, but there are plenty of competing solutions out there. Reminds me of hydrogen power and the hydrogen economy, wonder whatever happened to that, pretty much dead these days for at least another few decades.

Hydrogen is inefficient as an energy store compared to other things, and needs some pretty serious engieering to prevent leaks and whatnot...

Yes, there are many solutions, but they need to be applied. And I guess part of the problem is applying the oes which aren't likely to involve more environmental damage, also.

[nonny]

tldr

No wonder this boards dead.